With only about three weeks left in the current Spanish league season, the 33rd round has concluded, leaving just five matches and 15 points up for grabs. As the campaign reaches its climax, the title race is all but decided, shifting the focus to the fight for European competition spots and the relegation scrap. Let’s first look at the top four teams that are virtually guaranteed a place in next season’s Champions League.
Barcelona’s Fermín López celebrates after scoring the opening goal against Getafe (Reuters).
**Barça aims for the 100-point mark**
Leaders Barcelona (85 points) are almost certain to secure a second consecutive league title. Coach Hansi Flick’s trademark high line has occasionally come at a heavy cost, leading to a Champions League quarterfinal exit, but in domestic play, they have been the most balanced team throughout the season (87 goals scored and 30 conceded, both league-best). New signing João Garcia has impressed enough to earn a Spain debut, Pedri dominates midfield, and the attacking quartet of Yamal, Ferran Torres, Lewandowski, and Raphinha have all reached double digits in goals. With an 11-point lead over second place, no team in history has overturned such a gap. Currently on a nine-match winning streak, Barça could clinch the title as early as matchday 34 against Osasuna. If they win all remaining five games, they would reach the 100-point mark, a feat achieved only twice before in Spanish league history.
Real Madrid’s Mbappé during the match against Betis (Reuters).
**Real Madrid faces potential back-to-back trophy-less seasons for the first time in 16 years**
Second-placed Real Madrid (74 points) brought in Xabi Alonso as new coach and spent a league-high €179 million (approx. ¥331.15 billion) in the summer transfer market, but injuries and player-coach friction plagued the campaign. The partnership between Mbappé and Vinícius never truly clicked. A January coaching change to Arbeloa did little to improve results, and the team dropped crucial points, exiting the Champions League in the quarterfinals. A second consecutive season without a major trophy now looks highly likely, something not seen in 16 years.
Third-placed Villarreal (65 points) have emerged as the team to break into the big three. Maintaining financial stability under a “sell and invest” policy, they sold key players like Baena, Jeremy Pino, and Barry in the summer while reinvesting €100 million (approx. ¥185 billion), the third-highest in the league. While they failed to win a single Champions League group game due to poor form from new signings and defensive errors, they have turned their home ground into a fortress in La Liga, delivering consistent performances. Despite lacking an outstanding individual scorer, they have netted 59 goals, the third-highest total. If they reach 78 points, they would surpass the club’s record of 77 points set in the 2007-08 season.
Fourth-placed Atlético Madrid (60 points) underwent a major overhaul last summer, spending €178 million (approx. ¥329.3 billion) — second only to Real Madrid — and replacing about a third of the squad. Coach Diego Simeone struggled to build chemistry early on, and by the halfway point, the league title was all but lost. However, the winter signing of Lookman for €35 million (approx. ¥6.475 billion) has paid off, helping the team reach the Champions League semifinals for the first time in nine seasons.
Real Sociedad’s Takefusa Kubo (photo taken in July 2024).
**Real Sociedad still in contention for Champions League**
If Spain secures a fifth Champions League spot next season, the final berth is expected to go to fifth-placed Betis (50 points), who boast talented forwards like Antony and Abde. Eighth-placed Real Sociedad (43 points), with Takefusa Kubo struggling through two injuries, have made a significant leap since coach Imanol Alguacil took over at the end of last year. They have already secured a Europa League spot by winning the Copa del Rey, but they haven’t given up on returning to the Champions League for the first time in three seasons. To achieve that, they must win their direct clash against Betis on May 9. Sixth-placed Getafe (44 points) and seventh-placed Celta (44 points) also remain in the hunt for European spots, likely competing with ninth-placed Osasuna (42 points) and tenth-placed Athletic Bilbao (41 points) for the remaining Europa League and Conference League places.
Eleventh-placed Rayo Vallecano (39 points) are one step away from reaching the Conference League final; if they win it, they would earn a Europa League spot for next season. In that case, Spain would have a total of three Europa League berths. Combined with a potential fifth Champions League slot, up to nine Spanish teams could participate in European competitions next season.
Real Betis’ Marc Roca (left) and Real Madrid defender Rüdiger clash after the match (Reuters).
**Sevilla in danger of relegation at 17th**
Looking at the relegation battle, no team has been relegated yet, and the situation is unusually tight. Currently in the drop zone are newly promoted last-placed Oviedo (28 points), 19th-placed Levante (33 points), and 18th-placed Sevilla (34 points), who have been struggling with severe financial difficulties in recent years. If this historic club, a record seven-time Europa League winner, goes down, it would be the first time since the 1999-2000 season — 26 years ago. Spanish newspaper Marca predicts that 11 teams from tenth-placed Athletic Bilbao (41 points) to bottom-placed Oviedo (28 points) could still be relegated. Although the gap between tenth and last is 13 points, only one season since 2000 has seen a smaller difference with five games left.
**Survival threshold likely around 39 points**
The average points needed to finish 17th (just above relegation) over the past five seasons is 39, but given the current congestion, the threshold could be significantly higher this time. Oviedo, with a seven-point gap to 17th-placed Mallorca (35 points) — where Takuma Asano has suffered repeated injuries — looks almost certain to go down. On the other hand, Sevilla (34 points) is only one point behind, and Levante (33 points) is two points adrift, setting up a thrilling battle where positions could change every matchday. Among teams in the safety zone, 13th-placed Espanyol (39 points) is in an unprecedented 16-match winless streak. Thanks to points earned in the first half of the season, they still have some breathing room, but if they don’t break this bad run
